Panel Abstract

Mapping the 2018 Malaysian Verdict Through the AII (Anti-Incumbency Index)

Anti-Incumbency is the crux of Democratic values; a modern-day sentiment of freedom and the catalyst to change rulers by the process of free and fair elections. If the Elections process allows the free expression of Anti-Incumbency by means of ballot; it indicates a healthy Democracy. If not; then, it has to be backed by qualitative reasons for re-election or there needs to be a check on the health of the democracy, its institutions.


The maturity of the democracy can be assessed by deriving a single currency for mapping anti-incumbency sentiment in terms of effective electoral verdicts. The model has been applied on most elections around the world with additions every year. This year, the Malaysian General Election would be put through the lens of AII (Anti-Incumbency Indicator).
It would help us determine a lot of persisting questions, especially with regards to the AII and the Malaysian democracy. Questions such as, can we now finally determine the AII (Anti-Incumbency Indicator) for Malaysia as for the first time the Malaysian people have voted for a party other than the Barisan Nasional (BN)? Are there economic/social factors contributing to anti-incumbency or performance of the government? Or the 2013 Malaysian verdict, that a bad performance doesn't matter when ‘other’ considerations are taken into account? In short; why Elections fail when they fail and can we map the intangible "failure" from the data which suggests a tangible "successful" election otherwise in context of the 2018 Malaysian General Elections.

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