Panel Abstract

Imaginary War With China: Is The 1992 Consensus an Essential Element in Promoting Peace Across Taiwan Strait?

This study aims to examine the relationship between individuals’ attitudes toward the 1992 consensus and their support for Taiwan in the name of the Republic of China (R.O.C) without declaring independence. Given President Tsai Ing-wen’s refusal to recognize the existence of the 1992 consensus that provides the basis for dialogue between Taiwan and China, there is a pressing need to understand the role of the 1992 consensus in Taiwanese people’s support for Taiwan under the R.O.C constitutional framework. By using data from the 2017 Taiwan National Security Survey, this study finds that people with higher levels of support for the 1992 consensus are more likely to support Taiwan in the name of the R.O.C without declaring independence. This implies that from the public’s perspective, the acknowledgement of the 1992 consensus is a required condition to maintain the status quo for Taiwan. Consequently, President Tsai and her administration might need to rethink about their policy of denying the existence of the 1992 consensus.